2010 - Ebook readers become common.
2011 - Book sharing websites become popular.
2011 - Copyright infringement of books skyrockets. Seriously, you haven't seen anything yet.
2012 - Ebook makers build in or software update to automatic copyright protection for non-DRMed books, with phone-home functionality. "Make an example" lawsuits by publishers' associations begin.
2012 - Ebook readers without the ability to phone home enjoy a surge in sales. Crackers teach how to destroy aerials or crack firmware of popular models. Ebook readers stop working unless they can check in with their maker regularly.
2013 - ??? Who will win? Free Culture or Big Business?
Unlike musicians, book authors cannot make a lot of money out of performances. They (and their publishers) currently depend heavily on book sales to earn money.
One way to severely reduce piracy would be to make the books very cheap, like 1/100th of a day's wages. This would make the few minutes spent finding books for free uneconomical. If this was the case, DRM would almost be unnecessary. This doesn't work for smaller-market books like textbooks.
Perhaps a collaborative effort will produce good cc textbooks by then anyway, here's hoping! Actually it looks like there are quite a lot of good texts already, they just need to get noticed!
An alternative model for textbook authors is that used by Sean Carroll. Lecture notes are posted online, and satisfy course requirements; students who want a more complete treatment can buy the expanded textbook. I think this is a good model, but it doesn't work for fiction.
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